合成橡胶产业日报-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the gradual restart of maintenance devices, and the negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, with both device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The 509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,535 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 26,456 (yuan/ton, the unit seems inconsistent here, might be a mistake in the original text), down 1,631; the 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions are between 11,550 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 66.89 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.35 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 581.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, down 0.81 dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,400 tons, up 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]