Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains flat this week, demand is gradually weakening, and with anti - involution speculation, it is advisable to place long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997 dollars/ton, up 21.5 dollars. - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 104,515 lots, down 720 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,323 lots, down 114 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,656 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.88 dollars/ton, up 6.04 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,100 tons, up 600 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,827.23 points, up 55.7 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 166,600. - The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump met with the CEOs of Bank of America and Citigroup at the White House to discuss "two - housing" related plans. - Regarding the US - Russia talks: ① Trump said the talks were fruitful, and there is a high possibility of a summit among Zelensky, Putin, and him. The three leaders may meet face - to - face as early as next week. ② Rubio said the decision on secondary sanctions against Russia will be made in the next 24 - 36 hours, and the Russian and US leaders may talk in a few days. - Regarding the Federal Reserve: ① Kashkari said it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two rate cuts this year are reasonable. ② Trump said the new Federal Reserve governor may be temporary, and the appointment will be announced in 2 - 3 days [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead smelters' operating rates increased due to the downward trend of lead prices, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. - Recycled lead is currently affected by the tight supply of scrap battery raw materials, resulting in low confidence among smelters and tight overall supply. Due to cost inversion, the resumption of production is slow. - The price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of scrap electric batteries remained stable, with some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi raising the price by 50 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, spot transactions are flat, and downstream enterprises are generally waiting and watching. The slow inventory digestion of dealers has greatly suppressed the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the downstream continues to wait and watch this week, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand will remain weak. - In terms of inventory, it has shown a slight upward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2].
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 09:49