碳酸锂产业日报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation where supply is slightly reduced, demand may recover to some extent, industry inventory is slightly depleted but still at a high level overall, and more effective demand is needed to drive the industry to reduce inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has its double - lines near the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 183,045 hands, down 9,957 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 289,832 hands, up 32,062 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,300 yuan/ton, down 1,540 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GFE are 15,023 hands/ton, up 580 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,200 yuan/ton, down 2,530 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.03 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 126,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 7,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 64.46%, up 1.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 47.10%, up 0.40 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 354,616 contracts, up 6,570 contracts; the total put position is 142,725 contracts, up 7,671 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of the total position is 40.25%, up 1.4443 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.36%, up 0.0512 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in China increased by 1.86% month - on - month and 59% year - on - year, with an industry operating rate of 57%. The operating rate of leading material manufacturers increased significantly, but the output of some small and medium - sized manufacturers decreased slightly due to the demand fluctuations of downstream battery cell manufacturers. The output of SMM ternary materials continued to grow, rising 5.75% month - on - month and 16.65% year - on - year, and the overall industry operating rate rebounded to 45%. The output of cathode materials increased in July, indicating that the terminal peak - season stocking may be approaching. The output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China increased by about 3.9% month - on - month and about 32.9% year - on - year in July 2025 [2]