瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is a fluctuation within the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] - This week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased. The increase in transport vehicles and capacity in the northwest led to a decline in freight rates, reducing logistics costs and stimulating traders' enthusiasm for提货. The port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with complex demand situations in different regions. The olefin industry's overall开工 increased slightly this week, but is expected to decline next week due to the potential shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin plant [2] Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2388 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 109 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main contract's holding volume was 436,677 lots, down 17,842 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 93,108 lots, down 1723 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8688, down 60 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2110 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 270 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; CFR in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 262 euros/ton, up 16 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.09 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; at South China ports, it was 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol was 46.77 yuan/ton, up 2.97 yuan. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's operating rate was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%. The olefin operating rate was 85.27%, up 0.32%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 889 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.59%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.66%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 27.52%, down 2.85%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.66%, down 2.86% [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 7.00 tons, and in South China by 4.71 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons, a 9.50% decline. The sample enterprise's orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - Inland enterprise inventory decreased as transportation improved and freight rates dropped. Port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with different demand performances in different regions. The olefin industry's overall operating rate increased slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [2]