国债期货日报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On August 7, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also strengthened. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.45%. Domestically, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in July, but the overall production and business activities remained stable, and export growth continued to pick up. Overseas, the US labor market showed weakness, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The overall policy tone of the July Politburo meeting was positive, and the bond market stabilized and rebounded. It is recommended to seize the band - up market and lightly allocate long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL futures all showed slight increases, with T at 108.615 (+0.05%), TF at 105.830 (+0.05%), TS at 102.374 (0%), and TL at 119.380 (+0.03%). T's trading volume decreased by 2,677, while TF, TS, and TL increased by 996, 1,664, and 6,350 respectively [2]. - Price Spreads: Some price spreads changed, such as TL2512 - 2509 (-0.34, -0.02↓), T2512 - 2509 (-0.13, +0.01↑) [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with T at 168,650 (-2,279), TF at 116,886 (-4,939), TS at 83,781 (-2,699), and TL at 96,898 (-3,924) [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds increased, such as 220010.IB (6y) at 107.2157 (+0.0637), 250007.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.0373), while 210005.IB (17y) decreased to 134.8686 (-0.0028) [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 0.25bp to 1.3525%, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.40bp, 0.70bp, and 0.70bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 3.12bp to 1.3312%, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3150%. The silver - pledged 7 - day and Shibor 7 - day rates decreased by 0.89bp and 0.80bp respectively [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 160.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 283.2 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will exempt kindergarten tuition fees starting from the senior class to ensure policy sustainability. Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation opinion on promoting the innovation and development of the brain - computer interface industry. From January to July, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On August 7 at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On August 8 at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting in July [3].