Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon contract opened lower and encountered resistance on the upside. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80%. The trading volume was 400,810 lots, and the open interest was 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots. Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply in August has increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. The terminal demand has been decreasing since June, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled the market sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 50,110 yuan/ton, down 2.80%, with a trading volume of 400,810 lots and an open interest of 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Polysilicon has a rigid lower - bound support from costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain is not smoothly transmitted to components. Supply in August is 125,000 tons, meeting 56.82GW of downstream demand. Terminal demand has been decreasing since June, with silicon wafer and cell monthly output at about 52GW. The supply - demand remains loose, and the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 7th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,580 lots, a net increase of 60 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. The domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]. - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30th [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250808
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-08 01:03