建信期货棉花日报-20250808

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Domestic Market - Zhengzhou cotton futures adjusted with position reduction and contract switching. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low - basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales were at CF09 + 1500 and above, picked up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) in North and South Xinjiang was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' supply was reported around 1550 - 1750, picked up in the inland [7]. - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a drop of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning mills were still limiting production. Due to losses in cotton yarn, the price - concession was not large, and the decline in Xinjiang spinning mills was relatively larger. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth continued to have insufficient transactions. The sampling orders of fabric mills were less than the same period of previous years, and there were few actual orders, mostly for rigid demand. It was expected that the factory production would remain sluggish in early August, and fabric mills would still produce conventional varieties, with improvement expected to start in mid - August [7]. International Market - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period of the previous year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period of the previous year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period of the previous year), and the lint - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period of the previous year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained a range - bound shock [8]. Overall Market Outlook - There was still more than a month until the new cotton was listed. The market expected the opening price would not be higher than 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to a lint processing cost of around 13,500 yuan/ton. The downstream industry was still weak, and the finished - product inventory of fabric mills was still high, but there was an increase in local sampling orders, and the marginal deterioration of the downstream slowed down. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market stabilized with shocks. The near - month contracts were under pressure as they were approaching delivery and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports totaled 170.741 billion US dollars (169.680 billion US dollars in the same period of the previous year), a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 11.604 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.162 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][18]