建信期货生猪日报-20250808

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. In the futures market, the near - term 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a relatively large increase in demand, and their price performance may be oscillating upwards. Policies and other factors are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the impact of later policies on production capacity needs attention [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 7th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,920 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,023 lots to 176,215 lots [7] - Spot Market: On the 7th, the average price of三元hogs nationwide was 13.74 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pig pens is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, the terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 7th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,300 heads, an increase of 3,700 heads from the previous day and 2,300 heads from a week ago [8] - Supply Side: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for slaughter, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pig pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [9][11] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week of July 31st was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [17] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [17] - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week and a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% [17]