建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of polyolefins opened lower and fluctuated, with the market trading atmosphere showing little change. Traders adjusted their quotes up and down, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously. The supply pressure persists, with new PE plants in Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into operation in the third quarter, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total capacity of 900,000 tons per year expected to be launched, significantly impacting the supply side. The demand is weak and needs improvement, with the overall downstream operating load remaining low. Although the operating rate of agricultural film has rebounded from a low level, the demand follow - up is slow; the orders in the construction field are mediocre, and the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are at historical lows in the same period; the demand for daily injection - molded products has increased slightly month - on - month. It is expected that the demand is likely to gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly adopt a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active inventory replenishment is limited. The policy - driven market has led to the rise of polyolefins, but the loose fundamental pattern will continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, polyolefins will return to a weak and volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: The opening price of L2509 was 7310 yuan/ton, closing at 7297 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.29%), with a trading volume of 170,000 lots and the position decreased by 10,149 to 281,347 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7075 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.13%), and the position decreased by 5827 lots to 245,600 lots [3][4]. - Supply Situation: In the third quarter, new PE plants in Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into operation, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total capacity of 900,000 tons per year is expected to be launched, increasing the supply pressure [4]. - Demand Situation: The overall downstream operating load remains low. The operating rate of agricultural film has rebounded from a low level, but the demand follow - up is slow; the orders in the construction field are mediocre, and the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are at historical lows in the same period; the demand for daily injection - molded products has increased slightly month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active inventory replenishment is limited [4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On August 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (- 1.91%) from the previous working day, compared with 800,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - PE Market Price: The prices of LLDPE in North China were in the range of 7190 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton [5]. - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6250 - 6300 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with few transactions at the individual offer of 6230 yuan/ton [5]. - PP Market Price: The PP market partially loosened, with a range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawn wire was 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton, in East China 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, the inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the inventory of two major oil companies, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][14][15].