中国房地产研报：热销项目：6月新规项目和高改盘集中入市支撑去化率攀升

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable recovery in the real estate market, with an average opening sales rate of 41% in June across 30 cities, reflecting a positive trend in market performance [3][31]. Core Insights - The overall real estate market in June continued its weak recovery trend, with a slight decrease in new home transactions but an increase in project sales rates, which rose by 3 percentage points month-on-month and 11 percentage points year-on-year [3][31]. - High-quality projects and new regulations have positively influenced market performance, with new projects achieving significantly higher sales rates compared to traditional ones [11][31]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation in market performance between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third and fourth-tier cities, with the former showing sustained demand and higher sales rates [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities was 41%, marking a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable market [3][31]. - Cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Tianjin showed sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of attractive new projects [7][31]. New Regulations and Project Performance - New regulations and high-efficiency housing projects have led to improved sales rates, with new projects in Guangzhou achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects [11][31]. - In June, Guangzhou saw 11 new projects enter the market, accounting for 60% of the total supply, with a subscription rate of approximately 90% [11][31]. City-Specific Trends - Core cities such as Shanghai and Chengdu experienced strong demand for high-end properties, with many projects achieving over 70% sales rates on the first day of opening [18][20]. - In contrast, weaker cities like Nanning and Changchun saw no new project launches, reflecting a lack of market activity [7][31]. Government Policies and Market Dynamics - Government-led initiatives, such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers, have positively impacted sales in cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, with a significant portion of sales driven by these policies [25][31]. - The report notes that in cities like Beijing and Xiamen, aggressive discounting and commission incentives have successfully boosted sales [27][31]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that new home transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year [32][31]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects struggle to achieve sales [32][31].