建信期货油脂日报-20250808

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Intraday, soybean oil became the strongest variety, and the three major oils took turns to rise. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will announce July's supply - demand data on August 11. July's palm oil production may be better than expected, but exports are still very weak, meaning the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. It's necessary to focus on whether palm oil can effectively stand above the 9,000 mark recently. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Policy interference is significant, and the trend lacks an obvious driver. Due to the current ample supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and factory soybean oil inventory may still increase, dragging down the rise of soybean oil. However, it is optimistic in the long - term because of the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand. The room for a significant decline in the spot basis of the three major domestic oils in the later period is limited, and it is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1. Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8980 | 60000 | 5000 | 8920 | 8950 | - 30 | - 0.33% | | 445128 | - 27119 | | P2601 | 8986 | 9016 | 9056 | 8932 | 8966 | - 20 | - 0.22% | 211935 | 245848 | 7141 | | Y2509 | 8360 | 8420 | 8486 | 8366 | 8406 | - 46 | 0.55% | 388658 | 408811 | - 49208 | | Y2601 | 8334 | 8396 | 8466 | 8340 | 8378 | 44 | 0.53% | 403098 | 595690 | 44018 | | OI2509 | 9576 | 9575 | 9672 | 9458 | 9496 | - 80 | - 0.84% | 343152 | 155705 | - 25362 | | OI2601 | 9524 | 9530 | 9630 | 9452 | 9490 | - 34 | - 0.36% | 158654 | 162192 | 9619 | Domestic spot basis prices are also provided, such as Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2509 + 80, etc. [7] 3.1.2. Operation Suggestions - Appropriate to buy far - month basis as the later decline space of domestic three major oils' spot basis is limited [8] 3.2. Industry News 3.2.1. Palm Oil News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in July 2025 was 1.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.01%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 17.18% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.69% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 2.58% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency SGS announced that Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 896,362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June's 1.195265 million tons. Exports to China were 75,000 tons, a significant drop from June's 168,000 tons. - Survey data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased significantly and reached a 19 - month high. Reuters estimated production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] 3.2.2. Brazilian Soybean News - The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade (SECEX) data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.26 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons from June's 13.42 million tons. The export value in July was 502.197 million US dollars, a decrease of 33.214 million US dollars from June's 535.411 million US dollars. The average export price in July was 409.71 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10.75 US dollars per ton from June's 398.96 US dollars per ton. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean exports were 77.207 million tons, a decrease of 1.944 million tons from the same period last year. The cumulative export value from January to July 2025 was 3.0430808 billion US dollars, a decrease of 390.4235 million US dollars from the same period last year. The average export price from January to July 2025 was 394.15 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 39.64 US dollars per ton from the same period last year [10] 3.3. Data Overview - A series of charts are provided, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, as well as some price spreads and exchange rate charts [13][14][15]