大越期货玻璃早报-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to the fading policy benefits and weak fundamentals. In the long - term, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory operation, but the sustainability of inventory reduction is questionable [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental: Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to the historical low of the same period; deep - processing orders are less than those of the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1104 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1076 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Policy benefits have faded, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the float glass industry has the expectation of capacity clearance [3]. - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the order quantity of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will have a wide - range oscillatory operation [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1083 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1104 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 21 yuan/ton to 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1104 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost side: Glass production profit has recovered, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down [2]. - Production line and output: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 222, with a start - up rate of 75%. The number of operating production lines and the daily melting volume are at the historical low of the same period, but the capacity has stabilized and rebounded [22][24]. - Demand: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons; the real - estate market has a continuous impact on glass demand, and the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are at a low level [28]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, supply - demand difference, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42].