大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The recent macro - atmosphere has cooled down, commodities have corrected, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the downstream terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is a lack of upward driving force for PTA. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the visible inventory of ethylene glycol may show a phased increase this week. In August, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 20 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4685, and the 09 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main positions: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Lack of upward driving force, but limited downward space. Pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. The night - session opened higher and adjusted, and the negotiation in the market was light. The market was weak in the morning, and the buying was average. The market stabilized in the afternoon, and the mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 67 - 75 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In US dollars, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 522 - 527 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being stalemate [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4475, and the 09 - contract basis is 79, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, a decrease of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The visible inventory may increase in the short term. It is expected to be adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, PTA export, total demand, and inventory, etc. [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including the operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory, etc. [11]. - Price - Related Data: There are historical price data of PET bottle chips, production profit data, capacity utilization rate data, inventory data, as well as PTA and MEG's inter - month spread, basis, spot spread data, and upstream and downstream operating rate data and profit data of the polyester industry [13][16][20].