大越期货白糖早报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The consumption peak season is about to end, and there was a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. The 01 contract is under short - term pressure and is expected to decline. Adopt a short - term bearish and oscillatory approach [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX estimates that the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season has been reduced by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons. The situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 445 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar - making season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Coca - Cola in the US has changed its formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7]. - Medium - term View: There is a gap in China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 yuan. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff for raw sugar [9]. - Short - term View: Trump's approval of the Coke formula modification is long - term bullish. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season's global sugar market surplus, ranging from 153,000 tons to 1.1397 million tons [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance (25/26): The global sugar production is expected to be 20.2 million tons, reaching the second - highest level in history, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the production increase. The global consumption is estimated at 19.8 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. There is an expected surplus of 270,000 tons, and institutional forecasts vary. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%, indicating a relief in inventory pressure but still below the long - term average. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [37]. - Institutional Forecasts in the Past 3 Months: USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons, ISO predicts a shift from a 488,000 - ton shortage in the 24/25 season to a possible surplus in the 25/26 season, and StoneX estimates a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 430,000 tons [40]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Data: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are predicted. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.9 million tons [42]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position, and the trend of the main force is unclear, showing a bearish tendency [5].