半年末50城库存整体下行，但外围区域去化压力不减

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in inventory levels across 50 key cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% as of June 2025, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector [3][18]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently in a de-inventory cycle, with significant pressure on certain cities like Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing, where the de-inventory period exceeds 18 months [3][18]. - The inventory structure shows that the main inventory in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing is concentrated in the 100-120 square meter range, while larger units (over 160 square meters) are also increasing in proportion [4][18]. - Peripheral areas in Guangzhou and mid-value districts in Wuhan and Nanjing are experiencing inventory accumulation, while core urban areas are seeing a slight increase in inventory ratios [8][18]. Summary by Sections Inventory Trends - As of June 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 cities is recorded at 30,927 million square meters, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline [3][18]. - The de-inventory cycle for these cities is approximately 21.82 months, down 5% year-on-year [3]. Area Segmentation - The main inventory in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing is in the 100-120 square meter range, accounting for over 20% of total inventory [4][6]. - Larger units (over 160 square meters) are seeing an increase in inventory pressure due to a rise in high-end residential supply, while smaller units (70-100 square meters) are experiencing a notable decline [4][6]. Regional Analysis - In Guangzhou, peripheral low-value areas have a higher inventory ratio, with the inventory in the增城区 reaching 22.26% as of June 2025, showing a slight increase [8][9]. - Core areas in cities like Wuhan and Nanjing have inventory ratios below 5%, but there is a rising trend in these areas [8][9]. De-inventory Cycle - The de-inventory cycle for units smaller than 80 square meters and larger than 180 square meters is significantly high, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [12][18]. - For example, in Guangzhou, units below 70 square meters and above 160 square meters have a de-inventory cycle exceeding 30 months [12][18].