建信期货铝日报-20250808

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date of issue: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non-ferrous metals research team of CCB Futures, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Aluminum price trend: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September further heated up, and the loose expectation supported the continued rise of aluminum prices. On the 7th, SHFE aluminum gapped higher and moved up, with the main contract 2509 reaching a maximum of 20,830 yuan/ton and closing at 20,750 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.73%. The daily line showed a small doji pattern. The total open interest of the index increased by 17,268 to 594,821 lots. The premium of 08-09 turned to par. [8] - Market fundamentals: Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply of bauxite in August showed a tightening trend, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mining enterprises in Guinea, the shortage of the mining end may be limited, and bauxite prices mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be participated in. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season, and inventories increased seasonally. Smelting enterprises had rich profits. [8] - Operational suggestions: The current macro sentiment dominates the aluminum market, and the expectation of a loose US dollar and domestic policy support the sector to be strong, but the drag of the off-season still exists. One can wait for the opportunity to short-sell after the rebound. [8] Group 3: Industry News - Overseas bauxite mining rights change: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government. Previously, the 690.20-square-kilometer mining area of GAC has been awarded to NMC for a period of 25 years. EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 1.4 billion tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9] - New plant operation: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, was officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum each year. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing. The plant is expected to reach full production capacity in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired an 80% stake in Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced a plan to invest $4 billion to build a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will almost double the primary aluminum production in the United States. [9] - Mining rights change: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dayuan桃园 Bauxite Mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area covers 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 0.5 million tons per year. [9] - Company performance: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the decline in aluminum and copper prices and the increase in tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. The benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. The company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's comprehensive net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. The company's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21%. [9] - Electrolytic aluminum import and export data: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. [10]