LPG早报-20250808

Group 1: Report Core View - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to factors such as weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental outlook. Although domestic chemical demand is expected to increase slightly in the short term, the overall situation remains unfavorable [1]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Price Data - On August 8, 2025, the price of South China civil LPG (the cheapest deliverable) was 4380 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10 yuan/ton. The prices of other regions and related products also showed certain changes, such as a -10 yuan/ton change in East China liquefied gas and a -10 yuan/ton change in Shandong LPG [1]. - The FEI and CP prices decreased, while PP prices fluctuated. The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. Market Spread and Position Data - The PG futures market was weak, with the monthly spread continuing to weaken. The 09 - 10 spread was -468 (-7), and the 9 - 10 spread was -439 (-18) [1]. - The basis of the main contract (moved to the 09 contract) strengthened to 445 (+79) [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 45 to 9759 lots, with 20 lots decreased in Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots decreased in Ningbo Baidinian [1]. International Market and Cost Data - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed, while the US - Asia arbitrage window was open [1]. - The August CP official price decreased, with propane at $520/ton (down $55/ton from last month) and butane at $490/ton (down $55/ton from last month). The estimated landed cost of propane was about 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane was about 4090 yuan/ton [1]. Regional Spread Data - The PG - CP spread was 30 (-13), the FEI - MB spread was 159 (+3), the FEI - CP spread was 5 (+0.5), and the FEI - MOPJ spread was -53 (-5) [1]. Fundamental Data - In terms of fundamentals, the arrival volume increased, port inventories accumulated, factory inventories decreased slightly, and the commodity volume rebounded slightly [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP fluctuated, while the paper profit continued to improve. The profits of other downstream devices decreased [1]. - The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (-0.5 pct). Although Liaoning Jinfa resumed production, Tianjin Bohua shut down due to a malfunction and is expected to restart next week, along with Jiangsu Ruiheng [1].