建信期货集运指数日报-20250808

Report Overview - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has likely passed. This week, the SCFIS has further dropped below 2300 points, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, indicating that the spot freight rate has reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Given the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has appeared. This week, the SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, and the freight rates are showing a weekly decline. The freight rate spot has likely reached its peak and is expected to decline in August. For example, many airlines have reduced their quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. The overall quotes for large containers are concentrated between $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 compared to the end of July. Historically, the peak of the peak season usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rates in late August generally return to the level of early July. Due to the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Market Conditions from July 28 to August 1: The China export container shipping market was generally stable, but the transport demand was weak. The comprehensive index declined slightly. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly due to export growth. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 1 was 1550.74 points, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The EU and the US reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase its purchase of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period [9][10]. - Mediterranean Routes: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [10]. - North American Routes: In June, the US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks in Sweden, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU respectively, decreasing by 2.2% and 7.5% from the previous period [10]. - Other News: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port on July 21, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: From July 28 to August 4, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a 0.8% decrease; the SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a 12.0% decrease [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes - Contract Data: On August 7, different contracts of container shipping European routes futures showed different trends in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1420.4, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous settlement price, and a trading volume of 26142 [6].