沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The outer market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation in the long - term is one of oversupply. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron remains weakly stable, with the cost line at a low level. Stainless steel is in the traditional consumption off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series has risen slightly this week. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remains unchanged. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the shipping cost is firm, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still at a low level, and the consumption of stainless steel has entered the off - season. The main contract of stainless steel 2509 is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Overview - 镍: On August 7th, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,850 yuan, up 780 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 15,115, down 15 from the previous day. The spot price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan, up 50 yuan [12]. - 不锈钢: On August 7th, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 13,000 yuan, up 65 yuan from the previous day. The average price of cold - rolled coils remained unchanged [12]. Inventory Situation - 镍: As of August 7th, the LME nickel inventory was 211,212, a decrease of 240; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 20,687, a decrease of 102. As of August 1st, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,374 tons [14][15]. - 不锈钢: As of August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. On August 7th, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipt was 103,226, an increase of 423 [19][20]. Cost Situation - 镍: The price of nickel ore remains weakly stable. The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% is 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% is 29 US dollars per wet ton. The shipping cost remains unchanged. The calculated import price is 122,030 yuan per ton [24][29]. - 不锈钢: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,855 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 13,584 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,387 yuan [26]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the implementation of anti - involution policies [7]. - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, and there are no new growth points in demand. The long - term situation is one of oversupply. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is weakly stable, with the cost line at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [7].