棉花早报-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and the future outlook is weak [4]. - The delay of Sino - US trade negotiations is lower than market expectations, and textile export data in July was not ideal during the export rush window. The "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear due to the current consumption off - season [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No specific content about the previous day's review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/2026 cotton season. ICAC predicts a global output of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons; USDA predicts output of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. China's rural ministry predicts domestic output of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons. Overall, it is neutral [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,191, and the basis is 1356 (for the 01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: China's Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 823 million tons for the 2025/2026 season in July, which is bearish [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bullish [4]. - Expectations: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, textile export data in July is poor, it is currently the consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract will consolidate in the short - term, and future expectations are weak [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content about today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Balance: According to USDA's July report, in 2025/2026, global cotton output is 2578.3 million tons, consumption is 2571.8 million tons, imports are 972.8 million tons, exports are 973 million tons, and ending inventory is 1683.5 million tons. According to ICAC's data, in 2025/2026, global output is 2590 million tons and consumption is 2560 million tons [4][10][11][13]. - China's Supply - Demand Balance: According to the rural ministry's July 2025/2026 data, domestic output is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 823 million tons [4]. - Trade Data: In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China's cotton imports were 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. 3.5. Position Data The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].