建信期货工业硅日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals' improvement of industrial silicon has reached a dead - end, and the price is oscillating and waiting for a direction. The supply - demand situation is in a loose pattern with both supply and demand increasing. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no actual anti - involution policy, and the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing. The support for the futures price lies in the recent strengthening of cost - related varieties. It is expected to continue the current range - bound operation [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Industrial silicon futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a 0.46% increase. The trading volume was 396,110 lots, and the open interest was 224,390 lots, with a net increase of 15,654 lots [4] - Spot Price: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,850 yuan/ton [4] - Future Outlook: In the fundamentals, the resumption of production in the southwest production areas has driven the output to continuously increase. The weekly output in the first week of August increased to 78,600 tons (this output converted to monthly output will increase to 348,100 tons). On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August has increased, and the monthly output demand is expected to reach 125,000 tons, but the incremental demand will be digested by the existing industrial silicon production increase. The output of organic silicon has remained generally stable, and there is a lack of short - term increment. The supply - demand of industrial silicon has increased simultaneously, maintaining a loose pattern [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 7th, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,475 lots, a net decrease of 105 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on August 7th, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]