贵金属日评-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainties and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the strong performance of precious metals. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, and it is expected to continue the long - and medium - term bull market. However, price volatility has increased [4][5]. - In the short term, London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce, waiting for the next breakthrough. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: Trump's tariff policies and Fed officials' support for rate cuts drive precious metals up. London gold approaches $3400 per ounce. It is recommended to hold a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions. This week, focus on China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market Data: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 786.70, up 0.17%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9275, up 0.82%; Gold T + D closed at 782.00, up 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 9224, up 0.83% [5]. - Medium - term Market: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. Uncertainties in Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - 3500 per ounce range. Investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings [7][9]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [17]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. Modi will visit China on August 31, indicating a thaw in India - China diplomacy [17]. - Some Fed policymakers are worried about the US job market and economic slowdown. Kashkari believes there will be two rate cuts this year, Daly thinks the Fed will need to cut rates soon, and Cook is concerned about the latest job market data [18].