Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated August 8, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the macro - driven growth has subsided, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and downstream demand is weak with neutral industrial inventory. For PP, the macro - driven growth has also declined, and downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak with neutral industrial inventory [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the stable growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment has subsided, and oil prices have also fallen. It's the off - season for agricultural film, and demand for other film types is flat, with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 27, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.7 million tons (+1.4), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment shows a decline in the manufacturing PMI. The short - term price increase has subsided, and oil prices have fallen. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and industries such as pipes and plastic weaving are weak due to summer weather. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.7 million tons (+0.6), which is bearish [7] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing over the years. The consumption growth rate has shown fluctuations, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has also decreased, and the consumption growth rate has varied, reaching 8.4% in 2024 [17]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250808
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-08 02:11