大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate last week had a production of 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The demand - side showed a decrease in inventories of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost - side had different profit and loss situations for different raw materials. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price on August 7th was 71,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,200 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, indicating a bearish basis. Overall, the lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,580 - 74,020 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some bullish factors like manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, and a decrease in imports from Chile, while bearish factors include continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient willingness of power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Supply decreased week - on - week but was above the historical average. Demand - side inventories decreased. Different raw materials on the cost - side had different profit and loss situations. Overall, it is neutral [8]. - Basis: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price on August 7th was 71,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,200 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, which is bearish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased week - on - week but was above the historical average. The inventory situation of different links was different, and it is neutral [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - Main Force Position: The main force position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons in the next month, a 2.78% increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,580 - 74,020 [8]. - Bullish Factors: Manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [9]. - Bearish Factors: Continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Yesterday's Market Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.20% to 757 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) increased by 3.55% to 1,750 yuan/ton. Other related lithium ore prices also had different degrees of increase [13]. - Lithium Compounds and Related Products: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other products increased to varying degrees, while some products like anhydrous lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [13]. - Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries had small fluctuations, and some remained unchanged [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related 3.3.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has shown historical fluctuations. The production of sample lithium spodumene mines in China and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also varies, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has changed over time [23]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The demand, production, import, and export of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are shortages in most months [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production by grade and raw material classification also shows changes. The monthly import volume from different countries and the overall import volume are presented [28]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The demand, export, import, and production of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [32]. 3.3.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) and the overall production are presented [35]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The demand, export, import, and production of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [37]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials are presented over time. There are also data on the cost and profit of lithium hydroxide processing and related production processes [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelter, downstream, and others) are presented, showing changes over time [48]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in different links (downstream and smelter) are presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related 3.6.1 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Sales: The price, production, and sales of lithium batteries and related cells have shown historical fluctuations. The export volume of lithium batteries also varies in different years [51]. - Inventory and Tendering: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the tendering situation of energy storage projects are presented [54]. 3.6.2 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors of different series have shown historical changes. The capacity utilization rate and monthly production are also given [57]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The demand, export, import, and production of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [60]. 3.6.3 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials of different series have shown historical changes. The weekly inventory, import, and export volumes are also presented [63][65]. 3.6.4 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price, cost, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have shown historical changes. The monthly production, export volume, and weekly inventory are also presented [67][70]. 3.6.5 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have shown historical changes. The retail - wholesale ratio and inventory early - warning index of dealers are also presented [75][76][79].