工业硅期货早报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply production has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains low, and cost support has slightly increased. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8455 - 8855 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production continues to increase. Demand shows a short - term increase in silicon wafer production, a medium - term potential callback, a continuous increase in cell production, and a short - term decrease and medium - term potential recovery in component production. Overall demand is in a state of decline but may rebound later. Cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48660 - 51560 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous week, and demand was 70,000 tons, a 3.40% increase. Polysilicon inventory is high, silicone inventory is low and profitable, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. The comprehensive operating rate of silicone is 70.08%, flat compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average. The cost support in Xinjiang during the flood season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On August 7th, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 445 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase; sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.41% decrease; major port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, production was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase, and the planned production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production decreased last week, cell production increased, and component production decreased slightly. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, with a profit of 9500 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On August 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease, at a high level in the same period historically, showing a neutral trend [8]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions have decreased, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the largest decline of 2.02% in the 05 - contract. Spot prices of various types of silicon remain unchanged [16]. - Inventory shows a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing slightly and sample enterprise inventory decreasing [16]. - Production and operating rates: Weekly sample enterprise production has increased, with significant increases in Yunnan and Sichuan samples, while Xinjiang samples have decreased slightly [16]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts have fluctuated, with the largest increase of 1.98% in the 08 - contract. - Silicon wafer production has increased, and inventory has decreased significantly. Cell production and exports have increased, and component production and exports show a mixed trend [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, inventory, production, and cost trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon and their downstream products, such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, etc. These data reflect the market conditions from 2018 to 2025 and provide a basis for analyzing market trends and investment opportunities [20][23][25]