大越期货豆粕早报-20250808

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by a bountiful South American harvest and good recent planting weather in the US. In China, increased imports of Brazilian soybeans also contribute to the range - bound trend [8]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean market is also likely to move within a range. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the bottom, while the bountiful South American harvest and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upside [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The fundamentals are neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory trend, a positive technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [8]. - Soybeans: The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral, with a positive basis, a negative inventory trend, a negative technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as the uncertain weather in the US and the China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish: High arrivals of imported soybeans in July, a bountiful South American soybean harvest, and good planting weather in the US [13]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish: Bountiful South American harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices: The report provides price data for soybean meal and soybeans from July 30 to August 7, including futures and spot prices [15][17]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: Sowing, growth, and harvesting progress data for soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are provided, which can help analyze supply expectations [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Positions: The report does not provide specific position data but mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out, and the main long positions in soybeans have decreased with funds flowing out [8][10].