Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production schedule is likely to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4988 - 5104. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - Base Spread: On August 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 66 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - Inventory: The factory inventory was 34534 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%, and the ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. The social inventory was 44800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.91%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.33%, all indicating a bearish situation [10]. - Market Chart: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 32458 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 12770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.82%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.169 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.25 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 84.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2673.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, higher than the historical average. The production schedule may increase [8].
大越期货PVC期货早报-20250808
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-08 02:09