大越期货菜粕早报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand, low oil - mill开机 rate, and low inventory, but the impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited as no tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports. The price is likely to return to the range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation, along with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The fundamentals show that demand is good, oil - mill开机 is low, and inventory is low, supporting the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but its impact is limited. The basis is negative, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out. In the short term, the price is expected to return to the range - bound oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output is offset by the increase in Russian output, the global geopolitical conflict may still rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: From July 29 to August 7, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2924 - 2999, and the trading volume ranged from 10.56 - 43.60 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2560 - 2640, and the trading volume was between 0.03 - 0.50 million tons. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 316 - 381 [14]. - Futures and Spot Prices: From July 30 to August 7, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) fluctuated between 2675 - 2745, and the far - month contract 2601 was between 2409 - 2469. The spot price in Fujian was mainly 2640 [16]. - Warehouse Receipts: On July 29 and 30, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0. On July 31, it increased by 1200 to 1200, and on August 7, it increased by 2753 to 3953 [17]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. For example, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of domestic rapeseed ranged from 0.87% - 7.19%, and that of rapeseed meal ranged from 2.47% - 10.55% [25][26]. - Import and Production: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, the rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly. The price of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [27][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the given content.