大越期货贵金属早报-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor and a poor auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds, gold prices have rebounded. New dovish expectations from the Fed support gold prices, and they are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 0.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: Also influenced by the expected appointment of the dovish Milan as a Fed governor, silver prices have continued to rise. Despite a poor 30 - year US Treasury bond auction, the recovery of domestic commodity sentiment has led to a resurgence in silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 415 yuan/kilogram, and silver prices are expected to be strong [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The dovish Milan's expected appointment as a Fed governor led to a recovery in gold prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year yield up 2.62 basis points to 4.252%. The US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.09, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44% to $3482.70 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the expected appointment of the dovish Milan led to a rise in silver prices. US and European stock indices closed mixed, US Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar index fell. COMEX silver futures rose 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include China's July CPI and PPI, and speeches by Fed members [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Scheduled events: Japan's June trade balance at 07:50; the 2025 World Robot Expo (time TBD); the online interpretation of the Bank of England's latest forecasts and policy decisions by Chief Economist Huw Pill at 19:15; Canada's July employment report (including employment figures and unemployment rate) at 20:30; a speech by St. Louis Fed President (2025 FOMC voter) Mousalem at 22:20; China's July CPI and PPI at 09:30 on Saturday; and the possible release of China's July M2 and other money supply data, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans on Saturday [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.72, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts stand at 36,045 kilograms, remaining unchanged [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 47, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11,506 kilograms to 1,150,338 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 3,267 (1.47%), short positions decreased by 42 (- 0.07%), and the net position increased by 3,309 (2.06%) [4][28]. - Silver: The main net long position increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 3,512 (1.02%), short positions decreased by 3,270 (- 1.20%), and the net position increased by 6,782 (9.60%) [5][32]. 4. Other Information - ETF Positions: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions decreased slightly but remained higher than the levels of the past two years [34][37]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decline but were higher than last year's level, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [38][41].