芳烃橡胶早报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it remains in a state of inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is not high. With the current low processing fees for spot goods persisting for some time, and considering the limited inventory pressure of filament and the continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade chips at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to gradually stabilize and has upward potential. It is advisable to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not significant, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. The situation is favorable and the profit margin is decent. However, in the far - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rates. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of the polyester yarn end is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fees on the futures market are still in a relatively low range, opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices can be considered [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From August 1 to August 7, crude oil prices dropped from $69.7 to $66.4, PTA internal - market spot prices decreased from 4750 to 4690, and PTA processing fees decreased from 121 to 101. The PXN spread weakened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits declined [2]. - Device Changes: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and its 1.2 - million - ton plant restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton plant reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From August 1 to August 7, the MEG external - market price decreased from 523 to 525, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 506 to 512. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 568 to - 554 [2]. - Device Changes: Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From August 1 to August 7, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6600 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from 21 to 21 (with fluctuations in between). The cotton - polyester staple fiber spread increased from 8185 to 8340 [2]. - Device Changes: Xianglu's small - line plant was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber - Price Changes: From August 1 to August 7, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard spot increased from 1720 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13910 to 14150. The RU main - contract price increased from 14310 to 15525 [2]. - Spread Changes: The spread between the mixed rubber and the RU main - contract decreased from - 260 to - 1215, and the spread between the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard and the NR main - contract increased from 197 to 289 [2]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From August 1 to August 7, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased from 6070 to 6135, and the domestic styrene profit remained at - 198 (with fluctuations in between). The EPS domestic profit decreased from 320 to 200 [5].