大越期货甲醇早报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand from factors like maintenance of coal - to - olefins plants in Zhejiang and the off - season. It is expected to adjust weakly. The inland market has a healthy supply - demand situation with low enterprise inventories and restarting olefin plants, but is dragged down by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are polarized. The port market may accumulate inventory this week, and demand is weak. The inland market has healthy supply - demand but is affected by the port. The price is expected to oscillate, with MA2509 in the range of 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis is 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, an increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has been in production since May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - Likely to be bearish: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, the price of动力煤Q5500 (intermediate price) is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 272 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2400 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2388 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 6 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 12 yuan/ton [8]. - Operation rate data: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [8]. - Inventory data: The inventory in East China ports is 51.08 tons, an increase of 8.60 tons from last week. The inventory in South China ports is 29.25 tons, an increase of 6.70 tons from last week [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic methanol plants: Many plants in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, including Shaanxi Heima, Ningxia Changyi, etc. [55]. - Overseas methanol plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low rates, and some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance [56]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants in the northwest, east, and other regions are in maintenance or operating normally, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which is in synchronous maintenance of methanol and olefins, and some plants like Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [57].