广发期货《黑色》日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. Iron Ore - Unilateral strategy: It is recommended to short 2601 at high prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [5]. Coke - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coke spread [8]. Coking Coal - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coking coal reverse spread [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, prices in East, North, and South China decreased or remained flat. Futures contract prices also declined slightly. For hot - rolled coils, prices in different regions decreased or were stable, and futures contract prices dropped [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2, an increase of 0.2%. Rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2, a growth of 4.8%, with electric - arc furnace output rising by 15.4% and converter output increasing by 3.3%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, an increase of 1.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a growth of 1.9%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, an increase of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar apparent demand increased by 7.4 to 210.8, a growth of 3.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 13.8 to 306.2, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore powders changed, with PB powder and Jinbuba powder decreasing, and Bahun powder increasing. The basis of 09 contracts for different powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to - 40.5, a decline of 1.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 18.5, a growth of 8.8%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to 22, a decline of 4.3% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 267.3 to 2507.8, a growth of 11.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8, a decline of 4.3%. The monthly national import volume increased by 782 to 10594.8, a growth of 8.0%. The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7, a decline of 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7, a decline of 3.9%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%. The monthly national crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - The port inventory increased by 83.1 to 13740.97, an increase of 0.6%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1, an increase of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1 to 20, a decline of 4.8% [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 20 to 1440, an increase of 1.4%. Coke futures contracts increased, and the coking profit decreased [8]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8, a decline of 0.4%. The 247 - steel - mill pig iron output decreased by 0.4 to 240.3, a decline of 0.24% [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 to 69.7, a decline of 5.34%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 to 619.3, a decline of 1.24%. The port inventory increased by 3.1 to 218.2, an increase of 1.4% [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal warehouse receipts in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Coking coal futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 65 to 418, a growth of 18.4% [8]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased by 6.4 to 868.7, an increase of 0.7%. The clean coal output increased by 3.1 to 444.1, an increase of 0.7% [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.9 to 118.8, a decline of 10.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9, a decline of 0.54%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 to 808.7, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 4.8 to 277.3, a decline of 1.7% [8].