广发期货《农产品》日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Concerns about production growth and inventory increases in the fundamentals. In the short - term, focus on whether palm oil futures can effectively break below the support of 4,250 ringgit. In the domestic market, it will likely fluctuate between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan. If it fails to gain support at 8,900 yuan, there may be downward pressure to seek support between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a stage of stagnant growth and correction. The expected high - yield of US soybeans and possible decrease in demand may suppress the performance of US soybeans, affecting CBOT soybean oil from the cost side. In the domestic market, the catering industry is weak, and fat consumption is poor. Traders expect demand to pick up in the second half of the month. Short - term basis quotes have limited fluctuation, and there is a possibility of long - term increase [2]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weakly declining. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the supply from large farms is expected to recover, and there is also an need to sell large pigs that were previously held back by small farmers. The short - term pig price is not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - term 09 contract. The far - term 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [4]. 2.3. Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak, with demand restricted by US foreign trade policies and good production performance. The rising Brazilian premium supports domestic import costs. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, with high arrivals and high operating rates in the short - term. After October, soybean arrivals may decline. The US soybeans are expected to have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held [7]. 2.4. Corn Industry - The sentiment in the Northeast region is poor, with increased willingness to sell and weakening spot prices. In North China, traders' inventories are relatively tight, and the willingness to sell at low prices is low. The short - term futures price rebounds slightly due to reduced selling volume, but the market sentiment remains weak, and the futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and production may increase steadily, with supply pressure remaining, and the futures price valuation may decline [9]. 2.5. Sugar Industry - In the international market, the strong production in Brazil has pressured the raw sugar price to decline slightly. India and Thailand have full expectations of high yields, and attention should be paid to the weather. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view should be maintained overall, with attention to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, demand is weak, and low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. With the entry of processed sugar into the market and expected increase in imports, the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish [14][15]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - Last week, the supply - side pressure of low - basis lint decreased marginally, but the downstream industry is still weak. After the cotton price decline, downstream观望 sentiment and pessimism increased, yarn prices followed the decline, and textile enterprises' finished - product inventories increased again. Some weaving factories have more holidays. Considering the large decline in the 09 - contract cotton price recently, positions can be gradually liquidated for profit - taking, and short positions in the far - term contracts can be held [16]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is expected to increase to 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. Although the egg - laying rate is lower due to high - temperature weather, the overall egg supply is increasing as cold - storage eggs are being released. In August, the market demand will enter the peak season due to Mid - Autumn Festival备货, tourism, and school - opening. The spot egg price may rebound, but overall, a bearish trading strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils Industry - Soybean oil: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,630 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 is 8,406 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 224 yuan, up 28.74%; the warehouse receipt is 15,370, up 33.19% [2]. - Palm oil: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,000 yuan, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,950 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 50 yuan, up 350%; the warehouse receipt is 570, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,630 yuan, down 0.72%; the futures price of 01509 is 8,496 yuan, down 0.69%; the basis is 134 yuan, down 2.9%; the warehouse receipt is 3,487, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Pig Industry - Futures indicators: The main - contract basis is - 445, down 71.15%; the price of the 2511 contract is 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the price of the 2601 contract is 14,395 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the 11 - 1 spread is - 295, up 1.67%; the main - contract position is 20,598, up 1.06%; the warehouse receipt is 380, unchanged [4]. - Spot prices: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei are all declining, with a range of 100 - 250 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 139,287, up 2.78%; the weekly white - strip price is 20.36 yuan, down 0.83%; the weekly piglet price is 27 yuan/kg, up 3.85%; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 127.8 kg, down 0.14%; the weekly self - breeding profit is 44 yuan/head, down 29.46%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 117 yuan/head, down 63.58%; the monthly breeding - sow inventory is 4,043 million heads, up 0.02% [4]. 3.3. Meal Industry - Soybean meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 is 3,031 yuan, up 0.17%; the basis is - 111 yuan, down 4.72%; the warehouse receipt is 10,950, unchanged [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,630 yuan, down 2.23%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,739 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is - 109 yuan, down 98.18%; the warehouse receipt is 3,953, up 229.42% [7]. - Soybeans: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,134 yuan, up 0.39%; the basis is - 174 yuan, down 10.13%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,741 yuan, up 0.32%; the basis is - 81 yuan, down 17.39%; the warehouse receipt is 13,573, down 0.35% [7]. 3.4. Corn Industry - Corn: The price of the 2509 contract at Jinzhou Port is 2,267 yuan, up 0.35%; the basis is 33 yuan, down 45.9%; the 9 - 1 spread is 72 yuan, up 10.77%; the price of bulk grain at Shekou is 2,390 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 19 yuan, up 2000%; the CIF price is 1,927 yuan, down 0.05%; the import profit is 463 yuan, up 0.23%; the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 163, down 22.75%; the trading volume is 1,692,629, down 0.55%; the warehouse receipt is 145,795, down 0.43% [9]. - Corn starch: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,660 yuan, down 0.08%; the spot price in Changchun is 2,710 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 50 yuan, up 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread is 94 yuan, down 3.09%; the starch - corn futures spread is 393 yuan, down 2.48%; the profit of Shandong starch enterprises is - 118 yuan, up 2.48%; the position is 281,327, up 0.46%; the warehouse receipt is 7,450, unchanged [9]. 3.5. Sugar Industry - Futures market: The price of the 2601 contract is 5,585 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of the 2509 contract is 5,667 yuan, down 0.28%; the price of the ICE raw - sugar main - contract is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.06%; the 1 - 9 spread is - 82 yuan/ton, down 49.09%; the main - contract position is 161,306, down 6.5%; the warehouse receipt is 18,812, down 0.99%; the valid forecast is 0 [14]. - Spot market: The price in Nanning is 5,970 yuan, down 1.00%; the price in Kunming is 5,830 yuan, down 0.17%; the Nanning basis is 303 yuan, down 12.68%; the Kunming basis is 163 yuan, up 3.82%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,398 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5,584 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1,572 yuan, up 1.57%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 386 yuan, up 3.50% [14]. 3.6. Cotton Industry - Futures market: The price of the 2509 contract is 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of the 2601 contract is 13,832 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the price of the ICE US - cotton main - contract is 66.36 cents/pound, down 0.84%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 165 yuan/ton, down 3.13%; the main - contract position is 272,133, down 3.32%; the warehouse receipt is 8,329, down 1.59%; the valid forecast is 348, unchanged [16]. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15,089 yuan, up 0.04%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,191 yuan, up 0.09%; the FC Index of M: 1% is 13,420 yuan, down 0.45%; the price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1,419 yuan, up 1.87%; the price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1,254 yuan, up 1.70%; the price difference between CC Index of 3128B and FC Index of M: 1% is 1,771 yuan, up 4.30% [16]. - Industry situation: The inventory is 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%; the industrial inventory is 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%; the import volume is 3 million tons, down 25%; the bonded - area inventory is 32.7 million tons, down 2.7%; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is 0.80%, down 57.9%; the yarn inventory days are 28.36 days, up 4.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days are 37.24 days, up 1.7%; the cotton outbound shipment volume is 53.46 million tons, up 22.6%; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s is - 2,090.10 yuan/ton, down 1.7%; the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1,275.40 billion yuan, up 4.1%; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1.90%, down 52.5%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 116.04 billion US dollars, down 3.7%; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 0.52%, up 131.7%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 151.62 billion US dollars, down 0.7%; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 0.61%, down 176.8% [16]. 3.7. Egg Industry - Futures market: The price of the 09 contract is 3,391 yuan/500KG, up 0.38%; the price of the 10 contract is 3,292 yuan/500KG, up 0.21%; the 9 - 10 spread is 99 yuan/500KG, up 6.45% [19]. - Spot market: The egg - producing area price is 2.92 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 475 yuan/500KG, down 2.81% [19]. - Industry indicators: The price of egg - laying chicks is 3.85 yuan/feather, down 0.77%; the price of culled hens is 5.88 yuan/jin, up 4.26%; the egg - feed ratio is 2.64, up 1.54%; the breeding profit is - 10.15 yuan/feather, up 17.68% [19].