《农产品》日报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats Industry - Concerns over increasing production and inventory in the palm oil market may lead to price weakness. In the short - term, it is necessary to monitor whether palm oil futures can break below the support level of 4,250 ringgit. Domestically, palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan. If the support at 8,900 yuan cannot be maintained, there may be a downward adjustment to seek support in the 8,600 - 8,700 yuan range. - CBOT soybean oil is in a stage of stagnant growth and correction. The expected high yield of US soybeans and possible reduction in demand may suppress the performance of US soybeans, affecting the cost of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, due to the weak performance of the catering industry this year, the consumption of oils and fats is poor. Traders are waiting for the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking in the second half of the month. The short - term basis quote has limited fluctuation, and there is a possibility of an increase in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weakly declining. The current supply and demand are both weak. In August, the supply from large - scale farms is expected to continue to recover, and there is also a need for small - scale farmers to sell their previously hoarded large pigs. The short - term pig price is still not optimistic, and the spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market offers good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds should also be noted [4]. Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak. Demand is restricted by US foreign trade policies, while production continues to perform well. The rising Brazilian soybean premium and the approaching US soybean listing time support the domestic import cost. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate. After October, the arrival of soybeans will decline continuously. - The strength of oils may limit the increase in meal prices. US soybeans are expected to have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract on the futures market can be held, but attention should be paid to the fact that the strength of oils may limit the increase in meal prices [7]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, there are differences in the willingness to sell in different regions, with prices rising in some areas and falling in others. The demand side is weak, and wheat is squeezing the demand for corn. In the short - term, the futures price may rebound slightly due to the reduction in sales volume, but the market sentiment remains weak, and the futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure is still significant, so the futures price may decline. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [9]. Sugar Industry - In the international market, the production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased year - on - year, but the cumulative production decreased year - on - year. India and Thailand have full expectations of a bumper harvest, and attention should be paid to the later weather. It is expected that the international raw sugar price will have difficulty breaking through the previous low in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view should be maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. - In the domestic market, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Processed sugar is gradually entering the market, and the price is under pressure. Considering the expected increase in imports in the later period, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to show a bearish trend [14][15]. Cotton Industry - Last week, the supply - side pressure of cotton decreased marginally, but the downstream of the industry is still weak. After the decline in cotton prices, the downstream is more cautious and pessimistic. The yarn price has followed the decline in cotton prices, and the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises has increased again. Some weaving factories have increased their holiday time, indicating that the industry performance remains weak. Considering the significant decline in the price of the 09 contract recently, positions can be gradually reduced and profits can be taken. Short positions in the far - month contracts can be held [16]. Egg Industry - In August, the theoretical estimated number of laying hens is expected to be 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. Although the egg - laying rate is lower than normal due to high - temperature weather, the overall egg supply is still increasing due to the release of cold - storage eggs. In August, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is gradually starting, and the tourism season boosts the catering consumption. The centralized replenishment at the end of the month when schools start will further stimulate demand, and the market demand will enter the peak season of the year. There is a possibility of a rebound in the spot egg price, but considering the large overall supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Soybean Oil - Spot price in Jiangsu (Grade 1): 8,630 yuan on August 7, up 50 yuan or 0.58% from August 6. - Futures price (Y2601): 8,406 yuan, unchanged. - Basis (Y2601): 224 yuan, up 50 yuan or 28.74% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 15,370, up 3,830 or 33.19% from August 6 [2]. - Palm Oil - Spot price in Guangdong (24 - degree): 9,000 yuan on August 7, up 50 yuan or 0.56% from August 6. - Futures price (P2509): 8,950 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 0.22% from August 6. - Basis (P2509): 50 yuan, up 70 yuan or 350% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 570, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed Oil - Spot price in Jiangsu (Grade 4): 9,630 yuan on August 7, down 70 yuan or - 0.72% from August 6. - Futures price (01509): 9,496 yuan, down 66 yuan or - 0.69% from August 6. - Basis (01509): 134 yuan, down 4 yuan or - 2.90% from August 6. - Warehouse receipts: 3,487, unchanged [2]. - Spreads - Soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): 28 yuan, up 2 yuan or 7.69% from August 6. - Palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): - 16 yuan, unchanged. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01): 6 yuan, down 41 yuan or - 87.23% from August 6. - Soybean - palm oil spread (spot): - 370 yuan, unchanged. - Soybean - palm oil spread (2509): - 544 yuan, up 20 yuan or 3.55% from August 6. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (spot): 1,000 yuan, down 120 yuan or - 10.71% from August 6. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2509): 1,090 yuan, down 66 yuan or - 5.71% from August 6 [2]. Pig Industry - Futures Indicators - Main contract basic: - 445, down 185 or - 71.15% from the previous value. - Live hog 2511: 14,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.64% from the previous value. - Live hog 2601: 14,395 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan or 0.59% from the previous value. - Live hog 11 - 1 spread: - 295, up 5 or 1.67% from the previous value. - Main contract positions: 20,598, up 626 or 1.06% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 380, unchanged [4]. - Spot Prices - Henan: 13,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Shandong: 13,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Sichuan: 13,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Liaoning: 13,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous value. - Guangdong: 15,340 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from the previous value. - Hunan: 13,860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous value. - Hebei: 13,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous value [4]. - Spot Indicators - Sample slaughter volume per day: 139,287, up 3,770 or 2.78% from the previous value. - Weekly white - striped pig price: 20.36 yuan, down 0.2 yuan or - 0.83% from the previous value. - Weekly piglet price: 27 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan or 3.85% from the previous value. - Weekly sow price: 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged. - Weekly slaughter weight: 127.8 kg, down 0.2 kg or - 0.14% from the previous value. - Weekly self - breeding profit: 44 yuan/head, down 18.3 yuan or - 29.46% from the previous value. - Weekly purchased - pig breeding profit: - 117 yuan/head, down 45.4 yuan or - 63.58% from the previous value. - Monthly fertile sow inventory: 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads or 0.02% from the previous value [4]. Meal Industry - Soybean Meal - Spot price in Jiangsu: 2,920 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (M2509): 3,031 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.17% from the previous value. - Basis (M2509): - 111 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 4.72% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 10,950, unchanged [7]. - Rapeseed Meal - Spot price in Jiangsu: 2,630 yuan, down 60 yuan or - 2.23% from the previous value. - Futures price (RM2509): 2,739 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 0.22% from the previous value. - Basis (RM2509): - 109 yuan, down 54 yuan or - 98.18% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 3,953, up 2,753 or 229.42% from the previous value [7]. - Soybeans - Spot price in Harbin: 3,960 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (Soybean No.1 main contract): 4,134 yuan, up 16 yuan or 0.39% from the previous value. - Basis (Soybean No.1 main contract): - 174 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 10.13% from the previous value. - Spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu: 3,660 yuan, unchanged. - Futures price (Soybean No.2 main contract): 3,741 yuan, up 12 yuan or 0.32% from the previous value. - Basis (Soybean No.2 main contract): - 81 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 17.39% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 13,573, down 48 or - 0.35% from the previous value [7]. - Spreads - Soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01): - 47 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 2.17% from the previous value. - Rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01): 270 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 4.26% from the previous value. - Oil - meal ratio (spot): 2.96, up 0.017 or 0.58% from the previous value. - Oil - meal ratio (main contract): 2.77, down 0.005 or - 0.16% from the previous value. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (spot): 290 yuan, up 60 yuan or 26.09% from the previous value. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (2509): 292 yuan, up 11 yuan or 3.91% from the previous value [7]. Corn Industry - Corn - Corn 2509 (Jingzhou Port FOB price): 2,267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. - Basis: 33 yuan, down 28 yuan or - 45.90% from the previous value. - Corn 9 - 1 spread: 72 yuan, up 7 yuan or 10.77% from the previous value. - Shekou bulk grain price: 2,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. - North - South trade profit: 19 yuan, up 20 yuan or 2000% from the previous value. - CIF price: 1,927 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous value. - Import profit: 463 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.23% from the previous value. - Number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning: 163, down 48 or - 22.75% from the previous value. - Output: 1,692,629, down 9,414 or - 0.55% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 145,795, down 630 or - 0.43% from the previous value [9]. - Corn Starch - Corn starch 2509: 2,660 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.08% from the previous value. - Spot price in Changchun: 2,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Spot price in Weifang: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Basis: 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 4.17% from the previous value. - Corn starch 9 - 1 spread: 94 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 3.09% from the previous value. - Starch - corn futures spread: 393 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 2.48% from the previous value. - Shandong starch profit: - 118 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 2.48% from the previous value. - Positions: 281,327, up 1,298 or 0.46% from the previous value. - Warehouse receipts: 7,450, unchanged [9]. Sugar Industry - Futures Market - White sugar 2601: 5,585 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or - 0.76% from the previous value. - White sugar 2509: 5,667 yuan/ton,