广发早知道：汇总版-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities, providing market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector [1][2][7][12][14] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with different trends and influencing factors in each sector 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Index Futures - On Thursday, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down. The four major index futures contracts all declined, and their basis showed seasonal repair [2][3] - Domestic July export data was positive, and the Bank of England cut interest rates. The A - share trading volume slightly increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [3][4] - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the MO contract with an exercise price of 6300 - 6400, taking a moderately bullish stance [4] Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed mostly higher, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on market liquidity [5][6] - China's July export data was strong, and it is expected that the strong export performance may gradually converge. The short - term bond market lacks driving factors, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see mode and focus on new bond issuance pricing and July economic data [6] Precious Metals - Multiple factors such as the US tariff on Swiss products, Trump's nomination for the Fed, and the Bank of England's interest - rate cut affected the market. The US dollar index declined, and gold and silver prices rose [7][8][10] - In the future, the attitude of Fed officials and US inflation data will increase market volatility. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options. Silver is also expected to be strong - side oscillating, and long positions can be held [10][11] Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - As of August 7, the spot quotes of major shipping companies were provided. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - The futures market showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the 10 - contract will be weakly oscillating in the short term. It is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [13] Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper increased slightly, and the demand was stable. Macro - events had no obvious positive drivers. The supply of copper concentrate was expected to be restricted, and the output of refined copper increased in July but was expected to decline slightly in August [14][15] - The demand for copper showed resilience, and the inventory situation was mixed. The copper price was expected to oscillate within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 77000 - 79000 [17] Alumina - The spot price of alumina was relatively stable. The output increased in July, and the inventory of ports and warehouse receipts increased [17][18] - The short - term price was supported by factors such as supply concerns and low warehouse receipts, but the market was expected to be in a slight surplus in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term, with the main contract expected to be between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased, but the spot was weak with an expanding discount. The output of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [20] - The demand was in the traditional off - season, and the inventory increased. The aluminum price was expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract was expected to be between 20000 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum alloy increased in June but was expected to decline in July. The demand was weak in July, and the inventory was close to full [22] - The price was expected to oscillate widely, and the main contract was expected to be between 19200 - 20200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [23] Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased, and the supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the output growth rate was lower than expected. The output of refined zinc increased in July [24] - The demand was weak, the inventory situation was mixed, and the zinc price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract expected to be between 22000 - 23000 [26] Tin - The spot price of tin decreased slightly, and the market transaction was dull. The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in June [26][27] - The demand was weak, and the inventory situation was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see, and the tin price is expected to oscillate widely, depending on the import recovery from Myanmar [28] Nickel - The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The output of refined nickel was high in July and was expected to increase slightly. The demand was stable in some areas but weak in stainless steel and sulfuric acid nickel [28][29] - The inventory situation was mixed. The nickel price was expected to be oscillating within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly. The output of stainless steel was expected to increase in August. The demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly decreasing [31][32] - The price was expected to oscillate, and the main contract was expected to be between 12600 - 13200. Attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand rhythm [33] Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The output increased in July and was expected to increase in August. The demand was stable, and the inventory increased [34][35][36] - The futures price increased significantly, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the main contract may test 75000 [37] Commodities - Ferrous Metals Steel - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. The cost increased, and the profit of steel mills improved. The output of steel was expected to increase in the third quarter [38] - The demand showed a slight decline, and the inventory increased. The steel price was supported, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up [39][40] Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly, and the futures price also declined. The demand for iron ore was still high, but the iron water output decreased slightly [41][42] - The supply decreased in terms of global shipments, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract on rallies and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [43] Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rebounded, and the spot price increased. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased [44][45][46] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [47] Coke - The futures price of coke increased, and the fifth - round price increase was implemented. The supply of coke was difficult to increase, and the demand was supported. The inventory decreased [48][49][50] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [51] Commodities - Agricultural Products Meal - The spot price of soybean meal was stable or decreased slightly, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The export of US soybeans was expected to increase, and the export of Brazilian and Ukrainian soybeans was also significant [53][54] - The supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased, but the arrival of soybeans after October was uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract of soybean meal [54][55] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs decreased. The profit of hog farming showed different trends in different scales. The inventory of sows increased slightly [56] - The supply and demand were both weak, and the short - term pig price was not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to hedging funds [57] Corn - The spot price of corn showed different trends in different regions. The inventory of corn in ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises was relatively sufficient [59][60] - The short - term market rebounded slightly, but the sentiment was still weak. In the long term, the supply pressure was still significant, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [60] Sugar - The international sugar price was oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price was also at the bottom. The sugar production in Brazil increased in July but the cumulative production decreased year - on - year. The production in India and Thailand was expected to be high [61] - The domestic demand was weak, and the supply was expected to be marginally loose. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will be bearish [61]