广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250808

1. PVC and Caustic Soda - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable but weakening. PVC prices are expected to continue to be under pressure, with increasing inventory and limited demand improvement [2]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, with caustic soda export quotes and PVC overseas quotes mostly stable [2]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry's start - up rate increased slightly, while the PVC start - up rate decreased. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide PVC increased, while the northwest integrated profit decreased [2]. - Demand: The start - up rates of most caustic soda and PVC downstream industries were stable or declined, except for the slight increase in the start - up rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes [2]. - Inventory: Caustic soda and PVC factory inventories decreased, but PVC total social inventory increased [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, while the supply - demand outlook for styrene remains weak. However, the short - term absolute price of styrene is supported by the improvement in the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Most upstream prices and styrene - related prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, and the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased on a weekly basis [5]. - Start - up Rate: The domestic start - up rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene increased, while the start - up rate of benzene decreased. The start - up rates of downstream EPS and ABS decreased, while the start - up rate of PS increased [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, PTA's supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and the processing fee of bottle chips has limited upward space [8]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Most upstream and downstream polyester product prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [8]. - Supply - demand and Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of most industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, and the inventory of MEG ports increased [8]. 4. Polyolefins - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream start - up rates are low. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [11]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: The closing prices of L and PP futures contracts mostly declined on August 7 compared to the previous day, and the spot prices of PP and LDPE also declined slightly [11]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [11]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of PP powder increased [11]. 5. Methanol - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Inner - land maintenance is expected to peak at the beginning of August, with high production year - on - year. The port inventory has increased significantly this week, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [14]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased, while the port and social inventories increased [14]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased slightly. The start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [14]. 6. Crude Oil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Oil prices have been weak recently due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, geopolitical easing and loose supply expectations still put pressure on the market [17]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Crude oil and refined oil prices mostly declined on August 8 compared to the previous day, and the crack spreads of some refined oils changed [17]. 7. Urea - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market turned from bullish to neutral - bearish, and prices returned to the oscillating range [22]. - Summary by Directory - Prices: Most urea futures prices and spot prices declined on August 7 compared to the previous day [21]. - Supply - demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, and the start - up rate of production enterprises changed slightly, and the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices increased [21][24]. - Inventory and Orders: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased, port inventory decreased, and the number of production enterprise orders increased [24].