广发期货日评-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide a comprehensive industry investment rating but offers specific investment suggestions for various commodities and financial instruments. 2. Core Views - The market shows short - term expectation differences due to the extension of tariff exemption clauses in the second round of Sino - US trade talks and the central political bureau meeting. Different sectors present diverse trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each sector [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: The index is in high - level shock with sector rotation. It is recommended to sell far - month contracts and short the 6300 - 6400 strike price MO put options, with a mild bullish view [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The short - term bond market lacks driving forces. The market should focus on the new tax regulations and the primary issuance pricing of newly tendered treasury bonds. The bond futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to turn to a wait - and - see stance and pay attention to July economic data and new bond primary bidding [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold maintains a strong - side shock with increased intraday fluctuations. It is advisable to buy on dips and hold in stages or sell put options with a strike price below 760 yuan to earn time value. Silver is driven by both financial and commodity attributes, and long positions should be continued to hold [2]. Shipping and Black Metal Sector - Shipping Index: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be weakly volatile, and a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended. For steel, a long - on - pullback attempt is suggested. For iron ore, short on rallies and long coking coal while short iron ore. For coking coal and coke, long on dips is recommended [2]. Non - ferrous Metal Sector - Copper: The price is supported by fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 77000 - 79000. The warehouse receipt volume is rising, and the medium - term oversupply trend remains unchanged [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Energy: The oil price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy and wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear. For various chemical products, different trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling, long - buying on dips, and trading within a range [2]. Agricultural Product Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans are under pressure from a good harvest expectation, while palm oil maintains a strong - side shock. Corresponding trading strategies like long - holding, short - selling on rallies, and reducing short positions are recommended [2]. Special Commodity and New Energy Sector - Special commodities such as glass and rubber have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided. In the new energy sector, for products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different trading suggestions based on their market situations are given [2].