中国房地产研报：7月预期新房供应转降，核心区配套产品俱佳项目还将保持高热

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, with expectations of declining new housing supply in July and a mixed performance across different city tiers [4][5][9]. Core Insights - In July, new housing supply is expected to decrease by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching a low point for the year, with significant reductions in supply from major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5][9]. - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement-oriented products, with 40% of new supply targeting first-time buyers, 45% for upgrades, and 15% for high-end products [11][12]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 29%, reflecting a 15 percentage point decrease month-on-month but a slight increase year-on-year [16][18]. Summary by Sections Supply Overview - In July, the total new housing supply across 28 key cities is estimated at 5.13 million square meters, marking a 32% decrease from the previous month and a 29% decline year-on-year [5][11]. - First-tier cities, particularly Beijing, are expected to maintain higher supply levels, while other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant reductions [7][9]. City Tier Analysis - Over 80% of second-tier cities are expected to see a decline in supply, with notable drops in cities like Qingdao and Changchun [9][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a 10% month-on-month decrease and a 37% year-on-year decline in supply [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure is increasingly focused on improvement needs, with nearly 70% of cities prioritizing main urban areas for new housing projects [11][13]. - Cities like Kunming and Wuxi have a high proportion of first-time buyer products, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu are focusing more on improvement-oriented offerings [12][13]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued low level of new home transactions, with potential for a slight recovery due to low year-on-year comparisons [16]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects face challenges [16][17].