合成橡胶市场周报-20250808

Group 1: Report Summary - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 in the short - term [8] - This week, the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market stopped falling and consolidated, with a range of 1,1300 - 1,1800 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton [9] - In the near future, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. There are differences in the negotiation focus between spot traders and downstream. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Next week, the supply is expected to change little, the inventory of producers is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase [9] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly, and in the short - term, it may be mainly adjusted slightly with limited overall fluctuation [9] Group 2: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.52% [13] - As of August 8th, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [20] - As of August 8th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - As of August 7th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] - As of August 7th, the basis of butadiene rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of August 7th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 571 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.88 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, the same as last week [31] - As of August 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.76%, a decrease of 0.21% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared with last week [35] Group 5: Industry Situation - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month. As of August 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 4.29% compared with last week [39] - As of August 7th, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] - As of August 7th, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,440 tons, an increase of 120 tons compared with last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons compared with last week [46] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [49] - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% month - on - month and 7.31% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,121,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [52]