碳酸锂市场周报：供给小增需求渐暖，锂价或将有所支撑-20250808

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply increases slightly and demand gradually warms up, with large price fluctuations and an improving industry outlook [5]. - The central bank and six other departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization," aiming to develop a mature financial system for high - end, intelligent, and green manufacturing by 2027 [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a change of +11.67% and an amplitude of 14.36%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton [5]. - Outlook: Macroeconomically, policies support the high - end development of the manufacturing industry. In terms of fundamentals, the raw material price fluctuates, the supply may increase, and the demand is gradually warming up. The overall industry expectation is improving [5]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [5]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of August 8, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 76,960 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,040 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 920 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 5,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7,490 yuan/ton [15]. Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 780 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate decreased by 0.21% week - on - week [19]. - Lithium Mica: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,358 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 6,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 455 yuan/ton [24]. Industry Situation - Supply: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year - on - year decline of 9.63%. The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [29]. Downstream Situation - Demand: The quotes of hexafluorophosphate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate remained flat. The output of electrolyte increased, while the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate decreased [32][35][39][44][47]. - Application: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The cumulative export volume was 1.06 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [49][55]. Options Market - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying asset's premium/discount is - 0.27, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [56][58].