Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs increased, with the main contract 2511 rising 2.38% weekly. The supply side sees an increase in the number of pigs for sale and a decrease in the weight of pigs for sale, while the demand side is currently weak but is expected to improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The current spot price is falling due to increased supply and weak demand, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the short term due to basis repair. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of live pigs increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, farmers are selling more pigs with lower weights, and the government has proposed measures to control production capacity. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered slightly, but high temperatures still suppress the willingness to buy pork. It is expected that demand will improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. Overall, the increase in the number of pigs for sale and weak current demand lead to a decline in the spot price, but the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The net short position decreased, and there were 380 futures warehouse receipts [12]. Spot Market - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: The average national live pig market price was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and down 3.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.24 yuan/kg, down 1.48 yuan/kg from last week and 8.2% from last month [27]. - Pork and Sows Prices: The national pork market price was 25.21 yuan/kg on July 31, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: The pig - to - grain ratio was 6.05 as of July 30, down 0.11 from the previous week and below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Sow Inventory: In late June 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, up 10,000 month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly [41]. - Live Pig Inventory: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In July, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased [44]. - Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In July, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs was 123.32 kg, down 0.21 kg from last week [48]. Industry Profit and Related Factors - Livestock Farming Profit: As of August 8, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 134.14 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 17.36 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.27 yuan/head month - on - month. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.15 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.15 yuan/head [53]. - Pork Import: From January to June 2025, China imported 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level [58]. - Substitute Product Price: As of the week of August 8, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.90 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from last week [61]. - Feed Price and Production: As of August 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.43 yuan/ton, up 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2395.59 yuan/ton, down 7.16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 930.53, down 0.6% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, up 175,600 tons month - on - month [67][70][75]. - CPI: As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream - Slaughtering Enterprises: In the 32nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week and 3.27 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.66%, the same as last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.50%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week [82]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million, down 6.53% from the previous month. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [88][90]
主力移仓换月，政策引导支撑远月
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 10:17