苯乙烯市场周报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, styrene lacked unilateral driving factors, and the futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the EB2509 contract closed at 7,235 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, a new 670,000 - ton Jingbo plant was put into operation, and the operating loads of some plants were adjusted. This week, styrene production decreased by 0.64% month - on - month to 359,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.19% month - on - month to 77.73% [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently this week. The EPS operating rate decreased by 10.58% month - on - month to 43.67%, the PS operating rate increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 55%, the ABS operating rate increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 71.1%, the UPR operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month to 30%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month to 73.35% [7]. - In terms of inventory, this week, styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.71% month - on - month to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 4.73% month - on - month to 15,500 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, this week, the average spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased slightly, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, the non - integrated cost of styrene dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, and due to the weak styrene spot, the non - integrated profit of styrene dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Looking ahead, next week, the output of the new Jingbo plant will increase, and the impact of restarted plants in Northeast and North China will expand. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month. The non - integrated profit has fallen to a loss level, and in the long - term, the high - operating state of plants may be difficult to sustain. Recently, the EPS plants under centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production. Short - term demand is expected to increase. However, the poor demand in downstream industries and the expectation of finished product inventory accumulation may suppress the growth of styrene demand. Styrene supply and demand will both increase, but overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, the demand in the US fuel peak season still exists, and a meeting between the US and Russian presidents is upcoming. International oil prices are expected to oscillate. The premium or discount of the EB2509 contract is not large, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton, closing at 7,235 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.84% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side: New plant put into operation, production decreased by 0.64% to 359,200 tons, capacity utilization decreased by 1.19% to 77.73%. Demand - side: Downstream operating rates changed differently. Inventory: Factory inventory decreased by 2.71% to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% to 159,000 tons, South China port inventory increased by 4.73% to 15,500 tons. Cost: Non - integrated cost dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, non - integrated profit dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. Short - term demand may increase, but overall supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure may rise. International oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the EB2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The EB futures main contract oscillated in a range, new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The 09 contract's position - changing is about to start, and the position volume decreased. The 09 - 10 spread oscillated slightly [8][12]. - Spot Market: The spot price fluctuated in a range, and the futures price had a slight premium [16]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream: Ethylene price fluctuated slightly, East China pure benzene price rebounded after a decline. In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month [22][26]. - Supply: In July, there was no new styrene production capacity. Production was 1.6011 million tons, up 5.83% month - on - month and 22.96% year - on - year. The production capacity base increased, but the operating rate decreased month - on - month [32][36]. - Demand: EPS, PS, and ABS prices dropped slightly. Downstream operating rates changed differently. This week, the EPS operating rate decreased, while the PS, ABS, and UPR operating rates increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [39][44][48][53]. - Import and Export: In June, styrene imports were 21,400 tons, up month - on - month and year - on - year; exports were 14,500 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - Inventory: Port inventory was 174,500 tons, factory inventory was 211,500 tons. East China port inventory was 159,000 tons, South China port inventory was 15,500 tons [61][65]. - Cost and Profit: Non - integrated cost decreased, and process losses increased. Import profit continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [69][73]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the styrene main contract was reported at 18.88%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options was around 18.53% [77].