硅铁市场周报：关税降息、情绪反复，利润改善供应回升-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - aspect shows that the Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to repeated fluctuations in market sentiment. The silicon - iron main contract should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: On July 30, the China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation". The new rural highway improvement plan aims to reconstruct 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027 [6]. - Overseas: Trump proposed about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with Apple promising a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [6]. - Supply and Demand: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and steel demand is generally weak. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is 1 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 150 yuan/ton [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the macro - situation [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of August 8, the silicon - iron futures contract's open interest was 463,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 63,000 lots. The 1 - 9 contract monthly spread was 186, a week - on - week increase of 56 points. The warehouse receipt quantity was 19,646, a week - on - week decrease of 2,396. The Ningxia silicon - iron price was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [12][17]. - Spot Market: As of August 8, the silicon - iron basis was - 242 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 points [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Production: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron capacity utilization rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45% (665 tons). The five major steel types' silicon - iron weekly demand was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%, and the national silicon - iron weekly supply was 109,100 tons [26]. - Inventory: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron inventory was 71,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.42% (6,180 tons). Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6,400 tons to 40,800 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 300 tons to 9,100 tons [29]. - Upstream: As of August 4, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron were unchanged. As of August 7, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke was 636 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [35]. - Downstream: This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 390,000 tons but an increase of 862,000 tons compared to last year. From January to June 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 200,100 tons, a 10.09% decrease compared to the same period last year [47].