焦炭市场周报：美国9月降息升温，五轮提涨利润亏损-20250808

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Macro Aspect: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - Spot Market: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Coking Industry: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - Other Data: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].