瑞达期货烧碱市场周报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and high warehouse receipts, the main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week. The purchase price of Shandong alumina enterprises decreased, leading to a drop in the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong. Next week, there are many planned maintenance devices in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may cause a slight decline in the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda. The weak trend of Shandong liquid caustic soda prices may continue. In terms of futures, the decline of the SH2509 contract may be restricted by the delivery logic, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Price: As of August 8, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,446 yuan/ton, down 3.66% from last week's close. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 85.1%. Demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 85.58% last week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97% this week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.38% week - on - week to 59.28%. Inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% week - on - week to 46.17 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton compared with last week [8]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda may decline slightly. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably, while the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak demand. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda may continue to be weak. In the futures market, the decline of SH2509 may be restricted, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week, and the position of the 09 contract decreased slightly [9]. - Spot Market - Shandong 32% Liquid Caustic Soda: The benchmark price is 800 yuan/ton, and the converted - to - 100% price is 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot decline is less than that of futures, and the market is slightly at a discount [14][20]. - Spot Market - Other Regions' 32% Liquid Caustic Soda: The market price in Henan is 912 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,850 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 880 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [25][30]. - Spot Market - Shandong 99% Flake Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 150 yuan/ton [35]. 3. Industry Situation - Upstream - Raw Salt: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - Upstream - Steam Coal: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 678 yuan/ton [46]. - Industry Chain - Supply: In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.88%. This week, the operating rate rose to 85.1% [49]. - Industry Chain - Demand - Alumina: In July, the alumina output was 8.0662 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.58% [54]. - Industry Chain - Demand - Non - Aluminum Downstream: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.97%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber were basically stable [58][61]. - Industry Chain - Import and Export - Import: In June, the caustic soda import volume was 0.09 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 0.42 million tons [67]. - Industry Chain - Import and Export - Export: In June, the caustic soda export volume was 35.05 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.0304 million tons [73]. - Industry Chain - Inventory - Liquid Caustic Soda Sample Inventory: The weekly enterprise sample inventory was 46.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.84% [78]. - Industry Chain - Profit - ECU Profit: This week, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week [81]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 27.93%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 24.57% [84].