棉花（纱）市场周报：供需皆弱缺乏指引，关注美农供需报告-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, while the cotton yarn futures contract declined by 0.78%. Domestically, cotton is in a destocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton goes on the market, and the basis is firm. On the demand side, the textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid demand. In 2025, the overall planting area of Chinese cotton has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, due to the weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas, it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Analysis: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78% [7]. - Market Outlook: U.S. cotton futures prices are weak. Domestically, cotton is destocking, supply is tight before new cotton is available, and the basis is strong. The textile industry is in the off - season, with reduced profits for inland spinning enterprises, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for rigid demand. The overall planting area of Chinese cotton in 2025 has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of high temperatures in Xinjiang on new crop growth. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro - factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - U.S. Cotton Market: The price of the U.S. cotton December contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.45%. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 1.09% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions increased by 0.33% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 1.47% month - on - month [10]. - U.S. Cotton Export: As of the week ending July 31, U.S. cotton export shipments were 182,300 bales, with the total export shipments reaching 11,191,200 bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The net increase in cotton export sales for the week was 92,100 bales. As of August 5, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was reported at 77.75 cents per pound, a 0.32% increase month - on - month [15]. - Futures Market: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,574, and that in cotton yarn futures was 119 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,252, and that of cotton yarn futures was 83 [23][29][34]. - Spot Market: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,178 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,620 yuan per ton. As of August 7, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,760 yuan per ton [44][54]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of August 6, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was reported at 13,480 yuan per ton, a 0.44% increase month - on - month; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was reported at 14,282 yuan per ton, a 0.34% increase month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was reported at 21,206 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [58]. - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of August 6, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 896 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,698 yuan per ton [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side - Inventory: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 18.18%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [65]. - Supply Side - Import Volume: In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the total imported cotton was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 670,000 tons [69]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [73]. - Terminal Consumption - Export: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was reported at 1,204,820,700 US dollars, a month - on - month decline of 4.62%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was reported at 1,526,671,400 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.44% [77]. - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Retail: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 742.59 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.98%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month decline of 6.06% [81]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton options market this week was provided [82]. - Stock Market - Xinong Development: Information on the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was provided [88].