铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of the copper market maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Macro - level interest rate cut expectations and low inventory support the downside, but the increase in supply and off - season demand suppress the upside potential. It is expected that Shanghai copper will mainly fluctuate [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 78,490 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.11%, a position of 156,892 lots, and a trading volume of 42,906 lots. The International Copper has a latest price of 69,650 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.17%, a position of 4,475 lots, and a trading volume of 2,009 lots. LME Copper for 3 months has a latest price of 9,670.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.66%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 10,901 lots. COMEX Copper has a latest price of 441.4 dollars, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, a position of 73,715 lots, and a trading volume of 29,948 lots [6] Copper Spot Market - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,530 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.26%. Shanghai Wumaom has a latest price of 78,505 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 180 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.23%. Guangdong Nanchu has a latest price of 78,380 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 220 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.28%. Yangtze Non - ferrous has a latest price of 78,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 180 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.23% [10][12] - The Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 120 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 31.43%. Shanghai Wumaom premium/discount is 85 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 40 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 32%. Guangdong Nanchu premium/discount is 85 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 80 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 48.48%. Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is 100 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 45 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 31.03%. LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 65.63 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 14.87 dollars and a weekly increase rate of 29.29%. LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - 140 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 12.25 dollars and a weekly increase rate of 9.59% [12] Copper Advanced Data - Copper import profit and loss is - 245.04 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.84 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 1.94%. Copper concentrate TC is - 41 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.5 dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 3.53%. The copper - aluminum ratio is 3.7812, a weekly decrease of 0.0108 and a weekly decrease rate of 0.28%. The refined - scrap copper price difference is 784.04 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 21.39 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 2.66% [13] Copper Inventory - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 21,272 tons, a weekly increase of 923 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.54%. The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,760 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 53.12%. The Shanghai Copper inventory is 81,933 tons, a weekly increase of 9,390 tons and a weekly increase rate of 12.94%. LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 144,875 tons, a weekly increase of 23,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 19.51%. LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 11,125 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,850 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 34.46% [17] - LME Copper inventory is 156,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,800 tons and a weekly increase rate of 12.88%. COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 123,593 tons, a weekly increase of 10,672 tons and a weekly increase rate of 9.45%. COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 139,703 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,291 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 3.65%. COMEX Copper inventory is 263,296 tons, a weekly increase of 5,381 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.09%. Copper ore port inventory is 42.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 1.2 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.93%. Social inventory is 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Mid - stream Production - In June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The monthly copper product production was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 61.32%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 26.73%, a monthly decrease of 5.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.43%. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 65.73%, a monthly decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.66%. The capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 50.45%, a monthly decrease of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.47%. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 67.88%, a monthly decrease of 4.37% and a year - on - year increase of 3.83% [23][24] Copper Element Imports - In July 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The cumulative import was 17.317529 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In June 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The cumulative import was 382,709 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The monthly import of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative import was 1,646,147 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The monthly import of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The cumulative import was 1,145,405 tons, with no year - on - year change. In July 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [26]