镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250810

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Lido Factors: Strong macro - sentiment support with an increased expectation of Fed rate cuts leading to a general rise in the non - ferrous market; marginal improvement in stainless steel demand, continuous decline in inventory, and increased production scheduling supporting demand [3] - Negative Factors: Significant inventory accumulation with LME and Shanghai nickel inventories reaching new highs, prominent supply - surplus pressure; strong expectation of loose nickel ore supply, weakening cost support, and increased downward pressure on prices [3] - Trading Consultation Viewpoint: Suggest short - term range trading and pay attention to changes in the ore end and demand [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - Nickel Futures: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 1,220 yuan or 1.01% week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous contract 1 is 121,070 yuan/ton, up 1,240 yuan or 1.03%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 2 is 121,170 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan or 0.98%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 3 is 121,330 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan or 0.98%; LME nickel 3M is 15,130 dollars/ton, up 180 dollars or 0.92%. The trading volume is 96,611 lots, down 23,911 lots or 19.84% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,103 lots, down 14,364 lots or 15.1%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 20,687 tons, down 687 tons or 3.21%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,590 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 33.61% [4] - Stainless Steel Futures: The closing price of stainless steel main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1% week - on - week; stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 12,935 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan or 1.02%; stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 12,995 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.09%; stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 13,080 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.08%. The trading volume is 85,499 lots, down 36,750 lots or 30.06% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,584 lots, down 5,891 lots or 6.73%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, up 240 tons or 0.23%; the basis of the main contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 3.03% [4] - Nickel Spot: The price of Jinchuan nickel is 123,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; imported nickel is 121,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; 1 electrolytic nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; nickel beans are 123,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; electrowon nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04% [4] - Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, down 795 tons; LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 thousand tons, down 1.2 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, up 182 tons [4][6] Graphical Information - Nickel Futures: Graphs show the closing prices of SHFE nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [7][8] - Stainless Steel Futures: A graph shows the closing price of stainless steel futures main contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [9][10] - Nickel Spot: A graph shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel from February 2024 to June 2025 [11][12] - Supply and Inventory: Graphs show China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, domestic social nickel inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (duty - paid at port) price, China's and Indonesia's nickel - iron monthly production from different time periods [13][14][15] - Downstream Products: Graphs show the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly production of nickel sulfate, the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors, the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory from different time periods [22][23][26]