农产品早报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market is slightly oversupplied and prices may weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, import orders may increase, and new - season supply growth may pressure prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate weakly due to high inventories and raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, high inventories and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, with a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [6]. - Cotton: It has entered an oscillating phase, and without major macro - risks, the price downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9]. - Eggs: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance, then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. - Apples: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. - Pigs: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, corn prices in some regions decreased slightly, and starch prices had no significant change. The corn basis increased by 12, and the starch processing profit increased by 1 [2]. - Market Analysis: Reserve auctions eased the market atmosphere, and new - season corn is approaching. Starch inventories are high, and production is still loss - making [3]. Sugar - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, spot prices in some regions decreased, the basis increased by 74, and the import profit decreased by 89. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 [6]. - Market Analysis: Brazilian supply pressure affects international prices, and a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in China, pressuring the futures price [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, the cotton price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 95. The 32S spinning profit increased by 31 [9]. - Market Analysis: Cotton has entered an oscillating phase, and the price downside is limited without major macro - risks [9]. Eggs - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, the egg price in some regions was stable, the basis decreased by 39, and the price of some substitutes was stable [10]. - Market Analysis: Egg prices rebounded and then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. Apples - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, the apple spot price was stable, and the basis decreased significantly [12][13]. - Market Analysis: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. Pigs - Price Changes: From August 4 - 8, the pig price in some regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 180 [13]. - Market Analysis: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13].