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美银:Xiaomi Corporation
2025-08-11 01:21

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a BUY rating for Xiaomi Corporation with a price objective of HKD 69.00, while the current price is HKD 54.00 [4][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 2Q operating profit is expected to reach CNY 9.6 billion, reflecting a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 66% increase year-over-year. Revenue is projected at CNY 114 billion, a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 29% increase year-over-year, primarily due to slower smartphone shipments. However, gross margin is anticipated to grow by 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% due to a higher sales mix of IoT products [1][15]. - The report highlights a robust growth in IoT revenue, expected to increase by 38% year-over-year, driven by subsidies, mid-year promotions, and the peak season for air conditioners. This growth is seen as a counterbalance to the weakness in smartphone sales [2][12]. - Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains strong, with Xiaomi shipping 81,000 units in 2Q. The gross margin for EVs is expected to expand to 25% due to higher average selling prices. Despite supply bottlenecks, demand is stable, indicating a strong brand image and sustainability [3][13]. Summary by Sections 2Q Earnings Preview - Expected real operating profit: CNY 9.6 billion (-3% QoQ, +66% YoY) - Revenue forecast: CNY 114 billion (+3% QoQ, +29% YoY) - Anticipated gross margin: 23.1% (+0.3 ppt QoQ) [1][15]. Smartphone and IoT Performance - Global smartphone shipments: 42.4 million units (+1% QoQ, flat YoY) - China shipments: 10.4 million units (-22% QoQ, +4% YoY) - IoT revenue growth forecast: 38% YoY [2][12]. Electric Vehicle Outlook - EV shipments in 2Q: 81,000 units - Expected gross margin for EVs: 25% - July shipments: over 30,000 units, indicating strong demand despite supply issues [3][13]. Adjusted Earnings Estimates - 2025E adjusted earnings raised by 4% - Fine-tuning of 2026-27E estimates to reflect current business outlook [4][16].